Thoughts on the appearance of Super PAC/Candidate collusion and the Supreme Court decision not to revisit Citizens United…

What do you get when you put Karl Rove and Mitt Romney in the same place at the same time at a mega-fundraising event in Park City, Utah? If you answered the appearance of coordination and collusion between the Romney campaign and American Crossroads, then you likely understand the skepticism of many towards the Supreme Court’s 5-4 per curiam decision not to re-visit its controversial Citizen’s United decision. The Court’s American Tradition Partnership, Inc. v. Bullock decision on Monday virtually ensures that there will be no stopping corporate money from flooding into Super PAC’s at record rates during the November election. The decision to maintain the status quo also turns a blind eye to the fact that the American public is watching billionaires and corporations single handedly drive messages in support or against certain issues and candidates in advertisements that sound and appear remarkably similar to that of the political parties and their candidates. These increasingly obvious coordinative actions raise red flags signaling that perhaps the line drawn between Super PAC activity and Political Campaign activity has become blurry to non-existent.

The appearance of coordination and collusion post-Citizens United, a decision called “uninformed, arrogant, and naïve” by Senator John McCain in a recent interview with Meet the Press, has been severely exasperated at the Presidential level. With only two candidates in the race, divisive opposing views on almost every major issue, and because of the national media’s focus on the every move of the candidates and their associated/unassociated groups, hiding any type of coordination between PACs and Candidates is now virtually impossible. As hard and soft ads from the campaigns hit the airwaves, there have likewise been streams of Super PAC ads running that could easily be labeled candidate specific because the issues addressed have been framed in a manner where the lay person can easily tell what candidate backs or opposes the viewpoint or stance promoted. For example, with Karl Rove and the American Crossroads Super PAC, any concern over the appearance of collusion seems to run a distant second to attempting to humiliate the President with one-sided content and Republican talking points. It’s no secret that American Crossroads is a GOP operation run by former members of team Bush, and although they may technically be unassociated with the Romney campaign, there can be no doubt that Rove’s ads are purposefully directed at hurting Obama in an unabashed attempt to benefit the presumptive GOP candidate.

Still, what really takes the efforts of Rove and some other conservative Super PACs to the level of possibly violating campaign finance rules is the visibility of the biggest donors to outside groups at Romney campaign events disguised as fundraisers. It became obvious that the new rules would be tested at their limit during the 2012 Republican Presidential Primary, as Newt Gingrich and a Super PAC led by Sheldon Adelson campaign made no attempt to curb public perception that they were coordinating by appearing on stage together at multiple Gingrich fundraising events. The response from the guilty parties then was that it was not coordination simply to be seen together. But, at an event like the “fundraising retreat” for Romney in Park City, it is simply naïve to think that there is not backroom coordination occurring between big money donors and campaign staff. The question now becomes what can be done in the wake of the American Tradition decision to ensure that American voters are not having their voices diluted beyond what is acceptable under Citizens United and the US Constitution.

At this point, the implication from American Tradition is that nothing will be done at the Supreme Court level to change the rules despite growing evidence of their abuse. Any substantive changes will not occur until after the 2012 election cycle and will likely require a heightened level of proof of collusion and coordination to move the Court to seriously re-address the campaign finance issue. The conservative justices have taken a wait and see approach, while the liberal justices continue to point out many of the same concerns raised by this and many other articles on the post-Citizens United landscape. Therefore, it will be up to good reporting and increased accountability on the part of the American electorate and media to move the Court to act on the fact that coordination is in fact occurring. The Court has long considered the appearance of corruption as a compelling governmental interest, and evidence of such should be at the heart of any discussion on election rules in the United States. Unfortunately, because of American Tradition, Karl Rove and other GOP-tied Super PACs will be allowed to continue abusing campaign finance rules.

Thoughts on whether Karl Rove will be Romney’s Sarah Palin…

He will not appear on the Republican ticket or speak at the GOP Convention, yet his impact on the 2012 race for President of the United States has already been felt. He has skillfully navigated the post Citizens United landscape, helping to push the Tea Party into Congress. He is currently helping to pour millions of dollars into negative ads attacking President Barack Obama in swing states. He has attempted to depict Obama as an outsider, a celebrity, and distorted and twisted the President’s record/persona in order to get his messages across to key voting blocks. His and all other Super PACs are legally bound not to have any coordination with a candidate’s campaign, but it would be naïve not to see the many ways in which the new rules can be skirted (See Newt Gingrich on stage at campaign event with his sugar daddy). He is Karl Rove, George W. Bush’s former Deputy Chief of Staff, and his American Crossroads Super PAC cohorts are in the business of throwing political hand grenades.

Although Mitt Romney has not yet selected a running mate, he can rest assured that regardless of his pick the same kinds of inciting statements made to Republican crowds by the likes of Sarah Palin during the 2008 election (at the dismay of the McCain campaign) will be made by groups such as American Crossroads via the air and radio waves and the Crossroads GPS field campaign. Unfortunately for Romney, no matter how much he spends on ads, he will have never truly have control over the conservative message during this election season.

Much like Senator John McCain never had control over Palin’s crowds during the heavy campaign season,, Romney will also have little to no control over Super PACs like American Crossroads. No matter how hard Romney tries to keep things positive or on an economic message, he will constantly be walking back ads that Rove’s group has put out. There is no way he can stop it, so he will either have to embrace it or suffer the same fate as McCain.

It's also notable that McCain was never truly in with the starkest conservatives, and neither is Mitt Romney. Romney, like McCain, is not a big draw, he is not exciting, and he doesn’t give a great speech. Like McCain, Romney was the settled-upon candidate. He is not Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, or even Marco Rubio. Yet, because of the ill-fated Palin experience, and because FOX News is a defacto GOP network with Karl Rove as an active talking head, Romney will have to walk a fine line by either picking a name that draws ratings or by trying to play it safe with a lesser-known that he can consistently overshadow and keep on message.

He can go with a big name and risk being Palin’d, or he can go with a low profile pick and risk being overshadowed by Super PAC messaging because the ticket is just too boring. Either way, Romney will eventually run into messaging issues. His VP choice will no doubt be difficult, but the end result may be the same regardless of whether the pick is Marco Rubio or Rob Portman. The more outrageous Super PAC messages will always draw bigger ratings on FOX and Rush Limbaugh than will play-it-safe Romney campaign ads, and the Super PAC nonsense makes for bigger headlines with opposition groups. There is simply nothing Romney can do to stop this phenomenon under the current rules.

The conservatives running American Crossroads are not, and never have been or will be true Romney Republicans. Sure, they want to beat Obama, but this group is for the most part composed of ex-Bush aides and veterans of the neo conservative movement who are trying to stay relevant by pursuing the same divisive political messaging that drove the Bush/Cheney to two terms in the White House. They play on religion, they entice the birthers, they are the brains behind the new Tea Party movement, but they are certainly not Massachusetts moderates. They are the same people who trashed McCain in 2000, Kerry in 2004, and both Obama and Romney in 2008.

Karl Rove and company have Romney cornered, because unlike the Democratic Party, the Republican establishment does not have a recognizable uniting voice or platform (not liking the President is not a platform!). There is no Barack Obama or Bill Clinton, and Bush is currently a bad word on the Romney campaign. There simply exists a fractured GOP composed of factions representing different eras of conservatism leaning on an aging Reagan-era base in danger of disappearing if it does not begin to appeal to the changing face of modern America.

This lack of unification, coupled with the Citizens United decision, has opened the door for candidates to be at the mercy of the Super PAC if they are not themselves an intriguing presence. As far as Karl Rove and American Crossroads go, they have harnessed the potential of having the same negative impact or greater on the Romney campaign as did the unchecked rhetoric of Sarah Palin that haunted the McCain camp with independent voters in 2008.

The bottom line is that Mitt Romney cannot control Karl Rove even if Rove is trying to help him win. Because Romney will be outspent by Super PACs in an inter-party battle to define the key issues of this election, the Rove message will inevitably become part of the Romney message. Sure it’s still early, but it’s definitely not a stretch to say that Rove will end up having a Palin-like effect on Romney’s bid this November. Maybe Rove can help Romney fire up a segment of the conservative base that Romney cannot reach, but in the end, Rove’s push to fire up the Republican on dated social issues, along with his desperate attempts to create a straw man version of Barack Obama, could seriously backfire for Romney with undecided voters seeking to further distance this country from Bush-era practices and policies. Unfortunately for Mitt Romney, the money is in the bank and continues to flow to Karl Rove’s and other similar groups, their ads are already hitting the tubes, and the end results will be telling of the true effect of Citizens United on those who fiercely advocated for the Super PAC system.

Thoughts on the future of the Tea Party Movement

The Boston Tea Party of 1773 was a landmark occurrence in the sequence of events leading to the American Revolution. That day, fed up colonists revolted violently against the imposing taxes placed on tea by King George. Their cause, defending the rights of the colonies to engage in commerce without such a huge tax burden imposed by the British, ultimately led to the tar and feathering of British soldiers in front of an angry mob. The actions taken that day eventually helped to allow revolutionary aspirations to reach a fever pitch.

Flash forward to 2008, following the selection of Sarah Palin as the Vice-Presidential nominee of the Republican Party, it seemed there was a dramatic split between the social conservatives in the party and John McCain’s moderate Republican base. McCain, considered barely a Republican by many conservatives (dating back to his battles with George W. Bush during the 2000 Republican Primary process), never had control of his own party’s message. Social conservatives felt alienated by the mainstream Republican’s lack of enthusiasm for their core issues, including abortion, gun control, and a united disdain for Barack Obama and the Democrats. Their discontent would seal his fate.

Though McCain would attempt to entice the far right with gimmicks such as “Joe the Plumber”, most social conservatives felt a lack of enthusiasm by the mainstream Republican Party towards their social agenda, and they stayed home on election night in 2008. The next morning, it was obvious that there was a considerable gap in the conservative movement. Born out of discontent towards Washington, a perception of taxation without representation, and a general dislike for the agenda of President Obama, The Tea Party Movement, as they called themselves, took on increased traction by filling the gap amongst social conservatives looking for a platform to organize upon.

The Tea Party quickly grew into a group of loosely affiliated sub-groups, rallying behind politicians who fulfilled their agenda of a more socially conservative union. Though on the face, the movement had legitimate grass-roots ideals, such as opposition to the bank bailouts and the Recovery Act, the lack of leadership amongst the group allowed a radical element to hijack their cause. During the heated debates over health care last summer, The Tea Party jumped upon every rumor, true or false, and marketed health care as a government takeover. Followers took to the streets and town halls, and the opportunists in the crowd began to use the publicity of the moment to promote anti-minority, anti-government, and generally divisive sentiments among the movement.

Though it is true that many Tea Party members are good people, the above-stated hijacking took center stage this past weekend with the actions of health care protesters in Washington DC. Representing the Tea Party “Patriots”, some in the crowd channeled their inner 1960’s by raining down verbal abuse on minority members of Congress as they made their way to debate and vote on the bill before them. 50 years after the civil rights era, a radical few have tainted the image of the social conservative movement in this country. Tea Party members, lacking a leader, have no unified message with which to combat the hijacking of their cause by the fringes of the right. Some seem to condone the actions, and some seem to hold these people in contempt. What is sure, is the demise of the Tea Party Movement should they continue to allow uncivil behavior to define them going forward.

Republicans who have embraced the Tea Party, such as House Minority Leader John Boehner and Sarah Palin, stand guilty of inciting these crowds by playing to their most cynical and egregious claims for short term political gain. The result of this kind of irresponsible guidance has been mob like action by radical Tea Party members who have taken the support of these politicians to heart. The reality is that the Republican Part cannot allow the Tea Party to grow too large without incorporating them, or they run the risk of having the conservative vote split in November.

In the upcoming weeks, we will see attempts by many previously moderate Republicans to embrace the Tea Party. Even though they fly to the right of their true political identity. Already, in an attempt to reign in the Tea Partiers, former Bush Chief of Staff Karl Rove has begun talking down to them, blaming their lack of civility on the politically unsophisticated nature of the movement. Leading to the bigger questions going forward: First, will a cause, which has taken on its own identity, begin to run its own candidates in opposition to Democrats and Republicans? Second, will the Tea Party fold to pressure from the GOP and join the Republican cause going forward? And finally, can the Republican Party survive without gaining their support? The answers will arise in the months ahead, but the impact on the political landscape, much like the Tea Party of 1773, will be felt for years to come.