Today’s successful launch of the Space Shuttle Discovery marks the fourth to last journey in the storied, yet costly history of the NASA Space Shuttle Program. The current mission’s primary destination, the International Space Station (ISS), awaits the American crew and their Multi-Purpose Logistics Module in low earth orbit (LEO). Operating at a staggering cost of nearly a billion dollars per launch, the Space Shuttle Program will be retired later this year in favor of the newer, more cost effective Russian Soyuz spacecraft as a means to visit the ISS. Following the September 8, 2009 findings by the Augustine Commission on Human Space Flight, President Obama announced budgetary decisions had been made that would focus on bringing down the cost of LEO space flight, along with renewed interest in private sector development of the next generation of spacecraft. Therefore, we are now at an important crossroads for both NASA officials and those who will ultimately decide which direction to take our LEO space program.
Currently, the cost to hitch a ride to the ISS on the Russian Soyuz spacecraft is approximately 50 million dollars per seat. This puts the cost for six astronauts at between $300 and $400 million per trip, or what amounts to nearly a 600 to 700 million dollar savings from the current cost of launching astronauts and scientists via the Space Shuttle. Since there will likely be a minimum five year gap between the retirement of the Space Shuttle and the anticipated initiation of the next generation Orion spacecraft program (Run by Lockheed Martin), NASA will most likely choose to team up with the Russians for rides to the ISS in the foreseeable future. In the meantime, private sector space companies around the world, such as Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic, may offer NASA intriguing, cost effective, alternatives and models for successfully transporting mission crews and equipment to and from the ISS; and eventually to the Moon, Mars, and beyond.
This collaboration will need to be accelerated should Russia, as expected, decide to hike up the price per seat for a ride on the Soyuz given our demand and the gap between now and the proposed Orion launch in 2015. As mentioned above, NASA’s future collaborations with the private sector will be of vital importance for the development of future means of human and robotic space flight. In November of 2009, Virgin Galactic’s SpaceShipTwo had its impressive model debut at the Mojave Air & Spaceport. Launched from a specially designed transport plane called a “MotherShip”, SpaceShipTwo will prelude the larger SpaceShipThree and will break ground in the testing required to allow civilians to travel to and from other spaceports via sub orbital space in the near future. Based on the surprisingly low current per person cost of $200,000 for a test ride on SpaceShipTwo, it could be feasible for NASA, and other national space agencies, to significantly lower their mission costs in the future by adapting these new found forms of space travel to low earth orbit space flight.
In 2007, realizing the need for a genuine collaborative effort going forward, NASA and Virgin Galactic entered into a symbolic memorandum of understanding regarding the need to work together to progress human space flight and to share their meaningful innovations with each other. Along with the continuing Lockheed Martin Orion/Altair project for an LEO springboard to the Moon and Mars, payloads, and ISS missions which would launch from the Ares I rocket vehicle, NASA will one day have the welcomed alternative of launching to LEO via a “MotherShip” for crew trips only, and larger robotic payload transport missions. This exciting future for human space flight is expounded by the prospect of a two hour flight from London to Sydney via the proposed SpaceShipThree from Virgin Galactic. It’s not a science fiction movie anymore; in the next twenty years we will more than likely see both commercial and government spacecraft traveling from destination to destination in sub orbit in the same fashion as jet liners today. The anticipated ability of spacecraft to cruise into LEO in the future, launched by the much less expensive MotherShip method, has the incredible potential of transforming space travel from both a budgetary and practicality standpoint.
Given the promising future of the international Spaceport concept, the impending retirement of the US Space Shuttle, and the newly outlined objectives for NASA under the Obama Administration and the Augustine Commission, the critical next steps in human space travel and exploration are most likely to be dependent on effective collaboration through contract work with commercial space travel companies and space agencies across the globe. No matter what direction the President and Congress decides to take with regards to future human space travel, we can at least rest assured that there is a conscious effort to lower the blinding cost of spaceflight without compromising the future of space exploration. By looking to the ingenuity of the less budget restricted private sector for the future development of multifunctional spacecraft, there is no reason to believe that NASA will have any trouble accomplishing its long term goals in spaceflight and exploration. In the short term, the reality of the current budget situation dictates that we transition to more cost effective methods of achieving our goals in space. We’ll have to do this by taking our fiscal medicine, launching ISS missions with the Russians, with the knowledge in the back of our minds that the next generations of US spacecraft are on the verge of usability. This knowledge, and the important fact that modern technology is quickly catching up with the costs of reaching space, give great hope to the prospects of both astronauts and civilians in their quest to reach new heights, achieve great things, and visit distant destinations that will transform the way we think of the universe and each other.
The above revelations about future space flight lead us to bigger questions about the future of humanity as it relates to visiting other worlds; will the international nature of space exploration lead to a more “world based” view as opposed to “nation based” viewpoints? Will the next generation of Americans actually get to fly on these proposed spacelines such as Virgin Galactic, taking hours out of international travel? And finally, are we closing in on a need for an increased focus on international space regulation, given the prospect of increased security concerns for satellites and other low orbit communication objects? The next two decades are sure to provide the answers to these important questions; in the meantime, let’s take some time to appreciate the ever expanding nature of human intelligence and scientific innovation.
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