Thoughts on KTI’s top five most intriguing House races of the 2010 Election…

Though it’s still relatively early in the election year, there are some close mid-term races about to unfold for critical seats in the House of Representatives that are worthy of advanced billing. The GOP is eagerly looking to repeat the success of the post healthcare defeat midterm election of 1994, but this time around they face more hurdles than they at first anticipated. First and foremost, despite what label Republicans seek to put on it, healthcare reform became the law of the land this year, a huge boost to Democratic morale, and a major hurdle for President Obama and Congressional Democrats. Add to that the bipartisan Job’s bill, the Recovery Act, and the upcoming passage of financial reform aimed at cleaning up Wall Street, and it is slowly looking like Republicans will be running against a 21st Century version of the New Deal.

Given this setup, let’s take a closer look, one by one, at the five races deemed the most intriguing by KTI.

#5 – Republican Rep. Joseph Cao of Louisiana vs tbd
Rep. Cao, mentioned in an earlier KTI article, despite initially supporting the House bill, cast a controversial, largely unfounded vote against the final version of health care reform due to a personal, moral decision on abortion, and is surely in for a fight to keep his seat. Despite his best efforts to explain himself, it may be hard for the electorate in his district to forgive him for voting no on an issue they so heavily favored. His district, with a +25 Democratic lean (Cook Partisan Voting Index), should narrowly go back into the Democratic column, and is an interesting race to watch. After all, Cao was able to win his seat in this heavily African American community largely because of the well-publicized transgressions of William Jefferson in 2008, and not a broader conservative movement.

#4 – Michigan’s 1st District (Bart Stupak’s Vacant Seat)
Following the receipt of death threats in the wake of the health care reform vote earlier this year, Rep. Bart Stupak announced that he would not seek reelection to his seat in the House. As you may recall, he was part of a block of Democratic Congressmen hell bent on the inclusion of specific anti-abortion text in the health care bill. It took an Executive Order by President Obama banning the use of taxpayer dollars to fund abortions to finally get him, and the so called “Stupak Block,” to join with their Democratic colleagues in support of the landmark legislation. Stupak was a favorite target of the Tea Party, as well as abortion activists, and will seek to join another profession. He leaves an increasingly vulnerable seat behind, in a district with only a +3 Republican lean (Cook Partisan Voting Index) and no political stars.


#3 - New York's 29th District (Massa’s Vacant Seat)
Without getting into too much detail, and as KTI mentioned in an earlier article, freshman Rep. Eric Massa stepped down from his House seat following embarrassing revelations of misconduct which surfaced in the press earlier this year. Despite his best initial efforts to defend himself, Massa managed nothing but to make the job for the next Democrat in line more difficult, if not impossible. Conservative Mayor Tom Reed of Corning will run as the Republican candidate versus a yet to be named opponent. Therefore, given the inherently bad PR situation facing the potential Democratic candidate, and the +5 Republican (Cook Partisan Voting Index) lean of the district, there is a very good chance that this seat could turn back over to the Republicans in a close 2010 mid-term election.

#2 – Democratic Rep. Alan Grayson of Florida vs tbd
Few in Congress (our #1 excluded) are as outspoken and candid as freshman Rep. Alan Grayson of Florida. His recent theatre on the House floor has put him into the wingnut news cycle, while his depictions of conservatives are smiled upon by many on the left and equally despised by his political opponents on the right. If Alan Grayson were in a more liberal district, his rhetoric might play much better than it does within his divided jurisdiction in Florida. He has both the liberal to moderate city of Orlando and the more conservative suburbs surrounding the city to navigate this fall. The tilt here is slightly Republican at +2 (Cook Partisan Voting Index), giving Grayson very little room for error in what should be a hotly contested, and newsworthy race in central Florida.

#1 - Republican Rep. Michelle Bachmann vs Maureen Reed or Tarryl Clark
Perhaps the most polarizing and confused figure in the US Congress, Rep. Michelle Bachmann, has seemingly gone off the wagon with her borderline hate speech comments which have highlighted her brief tenure in the House. A favorite of the Tea Party, along with former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, Bachmann has become more and more divisive with every stump speech she gives. Her outdated, anti-minority and anti-establishment rhetoric, along with her constant call to arms in front of her supporters, has given her a sour reputation throughout mainstream America and with more moderate, commonsensical Republican’s. Her district, while leaning +7 in the Republican direction (Cook Partisan Voting Index), is vulnerable to Democratic capture due to these very evident moral flaws which Bachmann routinely projects in her depictions of America as she sees it. For this reason, Democrats are putting a ton of electoral energy into defeating Bachmann this November. Her opponent will either be a competent former Lieutenant Governor and Board of Regents named Maureen Reed or State Senator Tarryl Clark, and both will have the full support of the DNC, President Obama, and Democrats in Congress. Bachmann’s dangerous rhetoric, the DNC’s drive to defeat her, and her uncanny ability to insult reasonable Americans with her outlandish comments, makes the upcoming race for Minnesota's 6th congressional district KTI’s most intriguing House race to watch in 2010.