As US/NATO forces prepare for the series of targeted offensives planned for June of this year in Kandahar, Afghanistan, it may be useful to examine what we might expect to transpire in the day’s, month’s, and year’s following this pivotal operation aimed at permanently removing the Taliban insurgency from the region. With the US troop surge underway, and efforts being undertaken to work with Afghan leaders to minimize civilian casualties and develop trust, a successful mission is going to be one that not only eradicates the Taliban threat from Kandahar and elsewhere, but also empowers the Afghan people and local tribal governments to eventually take true control of their own cities and their country going forward.
Kandahar lies at the heart and soul of this ages old conflict in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Far before the attacks on 9/11/01, many powerful nations have fought and paid great prices for their efforts to secure this strategically located region of the world. Since we are not in Afghanistan to occupy it, the most important precursor to this planned offensive will be getting on the same page with local leaders and the Karzai government. Afghan forces must trust NATO forces, and vice versus, and without a clear understanding of our intended purpose, both short and long-term, there will be no way to effectively move forward post-offensive. Local leaders must know where to move civilians in order to prevent large scale casualties, and this will require that operational knowledge travel to Afghans who we have yet to establish real trust with. Once a meaningful degree of trust is established, and we carry out the proposed mission as planned/previewed to these leaders, then the momentum can slowly begin to build towards the empowerment of the Afghans themselves, without the United States or NATO forces constantly there to protect them.
Should the planned offensive go without a hitch, and an excess number of casualties are avoided, the door may creak open to proceed toward the long awaited end of the major US mission in Afghanistan. Of course, until there is true stability, nobody will be leaving in mass numbers, but at least if there can be a genuine degree of cooperation between NATO, Afghan leadership, and the United States leadership, the point can be made that progress is no longer an illusion, but a choice in the hands of the Afghan people, not the Taliban insurgency, or the US and our allies. Much like in Baghdad, Kandahar will be a tough fight for those who wish to remove an entrenched, armed, and organized insurgency. But, should the Afghan people decide that they no longer welcome the Taliban, and the Karzai government begins to act to eliminate the threat they pose to the general population, there is a chance that we could finally see an end to this decade long conflict.
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